The model's record
Every call, made before kickoff, graded
Before each game, the model's call is frozen: who wins, by how much, and how sure. After the final, it's graded against the real score. Every week is here, good or bad.
80%
of winners called the week of Oct 26: 884 of 1,110 games.
- All season
- 5,248 of 6,84577%
- Average miss on the margin
- 19.3 points
Week by week
| Week of | Games | Winners called | Share | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 1,110 | 884 | 80% | 17.1 pts |
| Oct 19 | 1,193 | 947 | 79% | 18.4 pts |
| Oct 12 | 1,258 | 988 | 79% | 18.5 pts |
| Oct 5 | 1,524 | 1,178 | 77% | 19.8 pts |
| Sep 28 | 1,624 | 1,151 | 71% | 21.4 pts |
| Sep 21 | 136 | 100 | 74% | 23.2 pts |
How this is kept honest
- Only calls frozen before kickoff count. A number written after the game describes the result; it isn't a prediction, so it is never counted or shown.
- One call per game: the last one before kickoff.
- Every week is published, with its game count, the bad ones included. Ties and dead-even calls are left out: there was no winner to call.
- The record starts the week of Sep 21. Earlier games have no call recorded before kickoff, and their pages say so.
- Each finished game's page shows its own call, right or wrong. How the numbers are made: how predictions are made.